CONCENTRATION OF COMMODITIES IN THE BRAZILIAN EXPORT AGENDA, IN BILATERAL TRADE WITH CHINA: AN ANALYSIS FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF THE DETERIORATION OF THE TERMS OF TRADE

Abstract

Based on the framework of the terms of trade deterioration theory, this work aims to investigate Brazilian exports and imports in bilateral trade with China. The period considered was from 2013 to 2023, a decade in which China consolidated itself as the second largest economic power and increased its demand for primary goods to sustain high growth rates. In this bilateral trade relationship, Brazil, without significant structural changes, maintains its position as a supplier of primary goods in the international division of labor, with China as its main trading partner. On the other hand, China establishes itself as a supplier of medium and high technology goods. This article seeks to analyze this model of commercial relationship developed between the two countries, where the Chinese strategy consists of importing products with low added value and generating value internally. The analysis was carried out based on a review of the Prebisch-Singer thesis. The main products exported by Brazil were: soybeans in first place, oil and iron ore technically tied in second place. China's main products exported to Brazil were: solar panels, smartphones and sound reproduction devices.