FRAMEWORK PARA EL ANÁLISIS DE DATOS CRIMINALES MUNICIPALES CON REGISTROS ADMINISTRATIVOS: UNA PROPUESTA METODOLÓGICA
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.56238/revgeov17n6-087Palabras clave:
Análisis Criminal Cuantitativo, Datos Administrativos, Gestión de la Información en Seguridad Pública, Clasificación Municipal de RiesgoResumen
Las secretarías estatales de seguridad pública brasileñas producen de manera rutinaria registros administrativos de incidentes criminales, pero carecen de un protocolo analítico estandarizado para convertir esos datos en diagnósticos territoriales confiables. Este artículo propone un framework de cuatro etapas para el análisis cuantitativo de la criminalidad municipal a partir de datos administrativos: (1) diagnóstico distribucional y selección del modelo de conteo adecuado; (2) selección de variables explicativas con fundamento teórico y validación estadística; (3) verificación cruzada mediante un método predictivo independiente; y (4) clasificación municipal por nivel absoluto de riesgo y anomalía residual. El framework se presenta como un protocolo replicable, con atención explícita a las características estructurales de los datos administrativos criminales que condicionan las decisiones metodológicas en cada etapa. Se discuten las condiciones de replicabilidad, las limitaciones internas del framework y las extensiones posibles para contextos con datos de mayor calidad.
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